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In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...
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One of the key determinants of potential growth are productivity gains. Total factor productivity (TFP) differences are …: the aggregate productivity loss from microeconomic distortions that prevent factors of production from being allocated to … key driver of productivity gains. Since distortions preventing misallocation can be driven by institutional obstacles …
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We study the long-run interaction between Germany’s economic growth trajectory and demographic aging. Using a … 2070. We account for the inherent uncertainty in our projections using Bayesian estimation techniques. Overall, Germany …, coupled with sluggish total factor productivity and investment trend growth, contributes to the decline. Our results highlight …
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