We consider the estimation of the unknown mean "&eegr;" of a univariate normal distribution N("&eegr;", 1) given a single observation "x". We wish to obtain an estimator which is admissible and has good risk (and regret) properties. We first argue that the "usual" estimator "t" ("x") = "x" is not...

The exact finite sample behavior is investigated on the bias of multiperiod leastsquares forecasts in the normal autoregressive model <italic>y</italic><italic>null</italic> = α + β<italic>y</italic>_null + <italic>u</italic><italic>null</italic>. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the existence of the bias and an expression is presented which we use to obtain...

The game of tennis raises many questions that are of interest to a statistician. Is it true that beginning to serve in a set gives an advantage? Are new balls an advantage? Is the seventh game in a set particularly important? Are top players more stable than other players? Do real champions win...

Two model averaging approaches are used and compared in estimating and forecasting dynamic factor models, the well-known Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the recently developed weighted average least squares (WALS). Both methods propose to combine frequentist estimators using Bayesian weights....

Sensitivity analysis is important for its own sake and also in combination with diagnostic testing. We consider the question how to use sensitivity statistics in practice, in particular how to judge whether sensitivity is large or small. For this purpose we distinguish between absolute and...

In this paper we measure perceptions of incorrect behavior or ‘small crime’, based on a questionnaire administered to a large representative sample from the Dutch population. In the questionnaire we ask the respondents to rate the severity or justifiability of a number of small crimes. We...