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The great recession of 2008-2009 resulted in a large fall in trade relative to output. Real trade fell roughly three times more than real GDP in the U.S. and Mexico, and by a factor of five in Canada. The decline in trade and output was particularly large in sectors with high levels of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291901
This paper uses highly detailed, quarterly data for five major industrialized economies to estimate the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1 - 2010:Q4. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample of data provide evidence of two key relationships....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292150
This paper demonstrates that an estimated, structural, small open-economy model of the Canadian economy cannot account for the substantial influence of foreign-sourced disturbances identified in numerous reduced-form studies. The benchmark model assumes uncorrelated shocks across countries and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292184
Recent work on policy rules under uncertainty have highlighted the impact of output gap measurement errors on economic outcomes and their importance in the formulation of appropriate policy rules. This paper investigates the reliability of current estimates of the output gap in Canada. We begin...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295656
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011940730
So far the literature has found that the effect of macroeconomic fluctuations on training decisions is ambiguous. On the one hand, the opportunity cost to train is lower during downturns, and thus training should be counter-cyclical. On the other hand, a positive shock may be related to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271576
We build an equilibrium business cycle model in which agents cannot perfectly distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of TFP shocks and learn about those components using the Kalman filter. Calibrated to Mexico, the model predicts a higher variability of consumption relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273643
Die Provinz Alberta ist eine der wirtschaftlich stärksten in Kanada. Ihr Reichtum begründet sich vor allem auf den … darin bestehen, eine Überhitzung der Konjunktur zu verhindern und eine stärkere Diversifizierung der Wirtschaftsstruktur zu …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011733159
Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have traditionally relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. However, technological advances of the past several years have resulted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279866
How important are the benefits of low price-level uncertainty? This paper explores the desirability of price-level path targeting in an estimated DSGE model fit to Canadian data. The policy implications are based on social welfare evaluations. Compared to the historical inflation targeting rule,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279869