Bulgaria’s currency board arrangement continues to have broad political and public support and shows no signs of strain, as interest rates are low and stable, fiscal reserves ample, and banks liquid. A structural reform agenda has also been implemented. The authorities have improved banking...

This paper evaluates Bulgaria’s Request for Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Macroeconomic developments remain broadly favorable, although a rise in the external current account deficit is a concern. Real GDP growth is estimated to have moderated to about 41⁄2 percent in 2001. The authorities...

The extensive growth model introduced under central planning in the 1950s resulted in rapid industrialization and initially high growth. The efforts to bring the banking system on a sound footing following the 1996–97 crises have hardened budget constraints, but they have yet to result in a...

This paper presents key findings of Bulgaria’s Financial System Stability Assessment, including Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Monetary and Financial Policy Transparency, Banking Supervision, Securities Regulation, Insurance Regulation, and Payment Systems. Bulgaria’s...

This paper examines Bulgaria’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and a Request for Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria. Over the last six-month period, Bulgaria’s macroeconomic stability has strengthened further. However, political pressures have made it more...

This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes Data Module provides a review of Bulgaria’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s special data dissemination standard, complemented by an in-depth assessment of the quality of the national accounts, consumer price index, producer...

Bulgaria's macroeconomic performance, in the face of the prolonged slowdown in the EU, has been impressive, but further efforts are required. The government's fiscal policy has underpinned recent economic success, and pressures to loosen such policies should be resisted. Fiscal reforms have...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation discusses that Bulgaria has been hit by the global financial crisis, with clear signs that the country’s capital inflows-driven boom has come to an end and that the real economy is slowing down. Executive Directors have commended the Bulgarian authorities for...

The large capital inflows that generated a domestic demand boom in Bulgaria led to strong employment growth. But a sharp reduction in capital inflows led to a contraction of domestic demand, while the recession in Bulgaria’s trading partners caused a drop in exports. Public policies will also...

Bulgaria’s potential output growth in future could be markedly lower, and it may take considerable time for the excess labor and resources to be absorbed by other sectors, in particular by the export sector. This suggests that the natural level of rate of unemployment will rise and remain...