The world oil market has undergone a series of changes that have reduced the share of oil in the global energy balance and, with it, the influence of Middle Eastern oil exporters. In spite of oil’s loss of ground, however, Middle Eastern countries remain at the center of world oil...

A short-run macroeconomic model is estimated for Venezuela, in order to examine the hypothesis that the availability of oil resources may entail a confidence effect—on perceived future incomes—that influences the expenditure and portfolio behavior of economic agents. Such confidence effect...

This paper reviews adjustment in oil imports and domestic pricing policies affecting petroleum under Fund-supported programs. The adjustment of countries with Fund-supported programs (during 1980–82) following the two oil price shocks is compared with that of the nonprogram countries, to...

This paper provides a model for the determination of the parallel market exchange rate premium in a country where oil export earnings accrue directly to the government, and foreign exchange is centrally allocated for the importation of specific goods. Next, it studies the parallel market for...

In this paper, we use micro panel data to examine the effects of oil price changes on employment and real wages, at the aggregate and industry levels. We also measure differences in the employment and wage responses for workers differentiated on the basis of skill level. We find that oil price...

Based on a simple model, the paper provides an explanation for illegal oil trade between Nigeria and its neighboring countries. The analysis focuses on the linkages between the level of smuggling and changes in the Government’s fiscal, monetary, and domestic pricing policies. It is shown that...

This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared...