This paper demonstrates that increased optimism about future productivity can generate an immediate economic expansion in a neoclassical model with vintage capital and variable capacity utilization. Previous research has documented that standard neoclassical models cannot generate a simultaneous...

This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators. It first analyses the main characteristics of the cycle, including the length, amplitude, asymmetry and changes of...

This paper identifies factors associated with takeoff - a sustained period of high growth following a period of stagnation. We examine a panel of 241 stagnation episodes" from 146 countries, 54 % of these episodes are followed by takeoffs. Countries that experience takeoffs average 2.3% annual...

Why is GDP so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? To answer this question, we propose a theory of technological diversification. Production makes use of different input varieties, which are subject to imperfectly correlated shocks. As in endogenous growth models,...

The integration of China into the global economy is one of the most spectacular events in economic history. This paper investigates to what extent this process affects output growth and inflation in the advanced countries. A GVAR model is specified to explore interdependencies between business...

The main economic variables have oscillated widely during the 1992 2005 period in Paraguay, in association with some macroeconomic and structural transformations, but also following general growth trends and business cycles in the South American region. This can be separated into three...

We evaluate the Smets-Wouters model of the US dynamically using indirect inference with a VAR representation of the main US data series. We find that the New Keynesian SW model is badly rejected by the data's dynamic properties and in particular cannot match the variability of the data. An...

Nahezu alle Institutionen -Kündigungsschutz, Gewerkschaften, Lohnspreizung, Arbeitslosenversicherung etc.- wurde verdächtigt und schuldig gesprochen die tragische Entwicklung der Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa verursacht zu haben. US-amerikanische Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen wurden zum Benchmark...