We combine the probability forecasts of a real GDP decline from the US Survey of Professional Forecasters, after trimming the forecasts that do not have “value”, as measured by the Kuiper Skill Score and in the sense of Merton (1981). For this purpose, we use a simple test to evaluate the...

Using a sample of sibling pairs from a nationally representative U.S. survey, we examine the effects of the fetal growth rate on a set of neurobehavioral outcomes in childhood measured by parent-reported diagnosed developmental disabilities and behavior problems. Based on models that include...

Transportation plays a central role in facilitating economic activities across sectors and between regions, and is thus essential to business cycle research. Using four coincident indicators representing different aspects of the transportation sector that include an index of transportation...

A monthly output index for the US Transportation sector over January 1979-June 2003 is reported covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indexes for freight and passenger are also constructed. The strong cyclical movements observed in the transportation output...