This paper defines two competing hypotheses on the working of fixed exchange rates. The quot;symmetryquot; hypothesis states that every country is concerned with the good functioning of the system, and cannot afford to deviate from world averages. Every country is just left to follow the rules...

This paper develops a simple econometric procedure for estimating expected exchange rate under target zones. We employ the linear projection methodology to make predictions without relying on any prior structural or distributional assumptions, and at the same time demonstrate that such a...

This paper estimates simultaneously dynamic equations for the Deutsche Mark/Dollar exchange rate and the German wholesale price index, which emerge from a model in which German prices are sticky. This stickiness is due to price adjustment costs which take the form posited by Rotemberg(1982).The...

Financial systems are inherently fragile because of the very function which makes them valuable: liquidity transformation. Regulatory reforms can strengthen the financial system and decrease the risk of liquidity crises, but they cannot eliminate it completely. This leaves monetary policy with a...

An epidemiologist calculating the risk of a localised epidemic becoming a global pandemic would investigate every possible channel of contagion from the infected region to the rest of the world. Focusing on, say, the incidence of close human contact would underestimate the pandemic risk if the...

1. Introduction -- 2. Some Introductory Thoughts -- Part I. The European “Postwar Consensus” and the European Project -- 3. The Origins of the Idea of European Integration: A German Perspective -- 4. The European “Postwar Consensus” and the Birth of the EEC -- 5 “Large Switzerland”...

Using 1970-1985 sectoral data for the OECD we find that inflation in nontradable goods is higher than in tradables, We identify a demand shift towards nontradables and faster growth of total factor productivity in the tradable goods sector as the prime causes of higher nontradables inflation. In...

The stability of the EMS depends crucially on realignment expectations of the market participants. In this paper we discuss how to measure such expectations and how to relate them to economic fundamentals, central bank reputation, and institutional arrangements of the EMS. We find the following...

This paper reviews the extensive theoretical and empirical literature on currency substitution. After discussing the ambiguity surrounding the definition of currency substitution, the paper illustrates the causes of substitutability of different currencies using a cash-in-advance model and a...

This paper develops a simple econometric procedure for estimating expected exchange rate under target zones. We employ the linear projection methodology to make predictions without relying on any prior structural or distributional assumptions, and at the same time demonstrate that such a...