In this article, time-series models are developed to represent three alternative, potential monetary policy regimes as monetary policy returns to normal. The first regime is a return to the high and volatile inflation rate of the 1970s. The second regime, the one expected by most Federal Reserve...

This look at interest rates and inflation in the U.S. over the past 50 years helps to clarify ideas about the Fed’s monetary policy and its own credibility. The authors examine three periods corresponding to three different policies: when the Fed operated without credibility, when it was...

This article develops time-series models to represent three alternative, potential monetary policy regimes as monetary policy returns to normal. The first regime is a return to the high and volatile inflation rate of the 1970s. The second regime, the one that most Federal Reserve officials and...

Which monetary regime is associated with the most stable price level? A commodity money regime such as the classical gold standard has long been associated with long-run price stability. But critics of the day argued that the regime was associated with too much short-run price variability and...

Fluctuations in the price of motor fuel (mainly gasoline) have caused most of the monthly noise and year-over-year fluctuations of headline CPI inflation over the past four years.