Der vorliegende Beitrag verfolgt ein zweifaches Ziel. Erstens beschreibt er Schätzungen der Zinsstrukturkurven rur Deutschland von September 1972 bis Februar 1996 mit Hilfe verschiedener Spezifikationen. Zweitens werden diese Schätzungen verwendet, um den Informationsgehalt der...

The purpose of the present paper is twofold. First, it describes zero-coupon yield curve estimates for Germany from September 1972 to February 1996 using a variety of curve-fitting procedures. Second, these estimates are tested for their information content regarding future inflation.

Die Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung Liechtensteins (VGR FL) wurde für das Jahr 1998 eingeführt. Deshalb existieren erst ab diesem Jahr wichtige offiziell ausgewiesene Kennziffern wie das Bruttoinlandsprodukt, das Bruttonationaleinkommen oder das Volkseinkommen. In BRUNHART [2012c] wurden...

Nicht nur die Kleinheit Liechtensteins und die daraus folgende Exotik, diesen Klein(st)staat als Untersuchungsgegenstand zu wählen, haben bisher dazu geführt, dass erst eine sehr überschaubare ökonomische Literatur zu diesem Thema existiert. Ökonomische oder wirtschaftshistorische Analysen...

Our paper examines the possible role of enterprise surveys in the forecasting of labour market processes. Based on two enterprise surveys with large samples we examine to what extent are enterprises, differing in their size, sales revenues, ownership structure and markets, capable to predict...

The study was prepared in the framework of the "Priority Project TÁMOP - 2.3.2-09/1: Establishing labour market forecasts and foreseeing structural changes". It presents a comprehensive overview of labour market forecasting activities, mostly quantitative, based on multi-sector models, in 12...

The study presents a comprehensive overview of labour market forecasting activities, mostly quantitative, based on multi-sector models, in 12 countries and the European Union. The principal aim of this effort is to provide ideas, lessons and benchmarks for similar forecasting exercises in...

This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices...

Out-of-sample forecasting tests of DSGE models against time-series benchmarks such as an unrestricted VAR are increasingly used to check a) the specification b) the forecasting capacity of these models. We carry out a Monte Carlo experiment on a widely-used DSGE model to investigate the power of...