How does an economy behave if (1) fundamentals are truly hump-shaped, exhibiting momentum in the short run and partial mean reversion in the long run, and (2) agents do not know that fundamentals are hump-shaped and base their beliefs on parsimonious models that they fit to the available data? A...

While gold objects have existed for thousands of years, gold's role in diversified portfolios is not well understood. We critically examine popular stories such as 'gold is an inflation hedge'. We show that gold may be an effective hedge if the investment horizon is measured in centuries. Over...

I show that endogenous investor inattention – investors allocating cognitive resources based on incentives – can explain substantial price underreaction to public information in corporate bond and stock markets. The key evidence is that prices under- react less to more payoff-relevant risks....

Gold objects have existed for thousands of years but for many investors gold has only recently become a tradable investment opportunity. Gold has been described as an inflation hedge, a “golden constant”, with a long run real return of zero. Yet over 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20 year investment...

I develop a model for monetary policy analysis that features significant feedback from asset prices to macroeconomic quantities. The feedback is caused by credit market imperfections, which dynamically affect how efficiently labour and capital are being used in aggregate. I then analyse what...