The objective of the article is to explain the methodologies and the findings of the 2016 Jamaican General Election … question was: what were the probabilities of the JLP or the PNP winning the February 25, 2016 General Election? The data was … drawn from election results and macroeconomic variables from 1962-2016; polls from 1976-2016; campaign ads; election …

-based election forecasting is the dominant modality throughout the Caribbean. Since the death of Carl Stone in Jamaica, polls have …. Model based election forecasting was introduced in Jamaica to complement poll-based forecasting. The model- based election …This article discusses election forecasting in the Caribbean through the reflective lens of model-based election …

Three econometric models were built to predict the 2020 General Election in Jamaica. These are the economics and … model with PNP leader acceptance (model 3). All three models accurately predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party. These … models show how the macro-economy, security concerns and party leader popularity influence election outcome, with similar …

crime in India. We exploit the quasi-random variation in the outcome of close elections between candidates with and without ….3 percent increase in crime in districts, including crimes against women. The effect is more pronounced when the leaders are …

public goods. To do so, we analyze policing and crime incidence under mayors directly elected by voters and under mayors … overall crime between 4.9% and 5.7%, depending on the specification. Our results further suggest that more accountable mayors …