This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060 …. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and … series are forecast by bootstrapping. This allows fully integrated simulations and the possibility to illustrate the …

whether the use of disaggregated information increases the forecast accuracy of the aggregate. For this purpose, the out …-ofsample forecasts for the aggregated employment forecast are compared to and contrasted with forecasts based on a vector … employment forecast. Moreover, fluctuation-window tests help identify the phases during which disaggregation increases forecast …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …