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The role of monetary aggregates in the policy analysis of the Swiss National Bank

Kirchgässner, Gebhard; Wolters, Jürgen - 2010

quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266089

Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies

Hampel, Katharina; Kunz, Marcus; Schanne, Norbert; … - 2007

forecast employment for the 176 German labour- market districts on a monthly basis. We first compare the prediction accuracy of … compared using the mean absolute percentage forecast error (MAPFE) for the simulated out-of-sample forecast for 2005. Our … the trend reversal beginning in some regions at the end of 2004. All our models have a high forecast quality with an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266794

Dynamic modeling of large dimensional covariance matrices

Voev, Valeri - 2007

Modelling and forecasting the covariance of financial return series has always been a challenge due to the so-called curse of dimensionality. This paper proposes a methodology that is applicable in large dimensional cases and is based on a time series of realized covariance matrices. Some...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266940

Competing approaches to forecasting elections: economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets

Leigh, Andrew; Wolfers, Justin - 2006

We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267283

Five open questions about prediction markets

Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2006

Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267442

On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2005

estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (iii) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267584

Is entrepreneurial success predictable? An ex-ante analysis of the character-based approach

Caliendo, Marco; Kritikos, Alexander S. - 2007

This paper empirically analyzes whether the character-based approach, which is based on the personality structure and the human capital of business founders, allows prediction of entrepreneurial success. A unique data set is used consisting of 414 previously unemployed persons whose personal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268415

Forecasting with spatial panel data

Baltagi, Badi H.; Bresson, Georges; Pirotte, Alain - 2009

This paper compares various forecasts using panel data with spatial error correlation. The true data generating process is assumed to be a simple error component regression model with spatial remainder disturbances of the autoregressive or moving average type. The best linear unbiased predictor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268987

Google econometrics and unemployment forecasting

Askitas, Nikolaos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269318

Prognose des CO2-Zertifikatepreisrisikos

Dannenberg, Henry; Ehrenfeld, Wilfried - 2008

Die Modellierung des CO2-Zertifikatepreisrisikos ist ein wichtiger Teilaspekt eines ganzheitlichen Managements von mit dem Emissionshandel verbundenen Unternehmensrisiken. Das Papier diskutiert ein Preisbildungsmodell, auf dessen Grundlage das Zertifikatepreisrisiko bewertet werden kann. Es wird...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269911