We propose a new type of test. Its aim is to test subsets of the structural equations of a DSGE model. The test draws on the statistical inference for limited information models and the use of indirect inference to test DSGE models. Using Monte Carlo experiments on two subsets of equations of...

This paper addresses the growing gulf between traditional macroeconometrics and the increasingly dominant preference among macroeconomists to use DSGE models and to estimate them using Bayesian estimation with strong priors but not to test them as they are likely to fail conventional statistical...

Indirect inference testing can be carried out with a variety of auxiliary models. Asymptotically these different models make no difference. However, in small samples power can differ. We explore small sample power with three different auxiliary models: a VAR, average Impulse Response Functions...

We examine the empirical evidence bearing on whether UK trade is governed by a Classical model or by a Gravity model, using annual data from 1965 to 2015 and the method of Indirect Inference which has very large power in this application. The Gravity model here differs from the Classical model...

This paper investigates the public sector wage premium in the UK using a microfounded eco-nomic model and indirect inference. The neoclassical wage determination model is tested and estimated without introducing any gap between the theoretical and empirical models. To test if the model is true,...

A number of studies have found that news shocks account for a large part of the aggregate fluctuations of the main macroeconomic variables.We show that when taking rational expectations into consideration there is a limit on the size of the variance of the news shocks,which has not been...

The Taylor rule is widely seen as a good summary of what the Federal Reserve does. Though the rule cannot easily be fitted to actual data as subsequently revised, at least for a full postwar sample, it can be fitted to real-time data (i.e., data as seen at the time), as shown by earlier work by...

The EU has pursued protectionist policies not merely in food but also in manufacturing at the customs union level. In services it has not dismantled much of the existing national protectionism. The economic costs are calculated here at some 3% of GDP for the UK and some 4% for the rest of the EU...

It has been widely argued that inflation persistence since WWII has been widespread and durable and that it can only be accounted for by models with a high degree of nominal rigidity. We examine UK post-war data where after confirming previous studies findings of varying persistence due to...

We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments and other features with data equivalents. We note that they select, scale and characterise the shocks without reference to the data; crucially they fail to use the joint distribution of the...