The long and sustained expansion of the nineties has generated, especially in the US, widespread rumours about the "death of the cycle". Nevertheless, towards the end of the last decade, it became clear that fluctuations of economic activity were far from being extinct. This has contributed...

In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business...

Die italienische Wirtschaft hat nach kräftiger Expansion im ersten Quartal während des Sommerhalbjahres stagniert. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt erhöhte sich 2001 um 1,8%. Die Arbeitslosenquote ging im Jahresdurchschnitt auf 9,5% zurück. Die Verbraucherpreise lagen um 2,3% über dem Niveau...