Forecast combination has become popular in central banks as a means to improve forecasts and to alleviate the risk of selecting poor models. However, if a model suite is populated with many similar models, then the weight attached to other independent models may be lower than warranted by their...

According to a Keynesian view, short term output fluctuations are normally demand side led. Since prices reflect demand, they should mirror output fluctuations. Thus, prices and output are expected to move in the same direction in the short run. The present paper investigates the historical...

Keynote lecture prepared for the Norges Bank research workshop “Monetary Policy Committees,” Oslo, September 6-7, 2007.

We investigate whether a decline in real interest rates and the US dollar contribute to higher commodity prices, and whether commodity prices tend to display overshooting behavior in response to changes in especially real interest rates. We analyze the behavior of a broad range of real commodity...

Most banks hold a capital to asset ratio well above the required minimum defined by the present capital adequacy regulation (Basel I). Using bank-level panel data from Norway, important hypotheses concerning the determination of the buffer capital are analysed. Focus is on the importance of: (i)...

Annual house price indices for four Norwegian cities are presented for the period from 1819 to 1989. The indices are constructed on the basis of nominal housing transaction prices compiled from the real property registers of the cities. Existing Norwegian house prices indices generally cover a...

We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. Forecasts are recursively evaluated from 1999 to 2008. The performance of the models over this period is then used to derive weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that model...

We employ information-gap decision theory to derive a robust monetary policy response to Knightian parameter uncertainty. This approach provides a quantitative answer to the question: For a specified policy, how much can our models and data err or vary, without rendering the outcome of that...

We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural VAR methodology. A solution is proposed to the simultaneity problem of identifying monetary and stock price shocks by using a combination of short-run and long-run restrictions that maintains the...

According to the Taylor principle a central bank should adjust the nominal interest rate by more than one for one in response to changes in current in?ation. Most of the existing literature supports the view that by following this simple recommendation a central bank can avoid being a source of...