The aim of this paper is to propose a new methodology that allows forecasting, through Vasicek and CIR models, of future expected interest rates (for each maturity) based on rolling windows from observed financial market data. The novelty, apart from the use of those models not for pricing but...

In this paper, we introduce the concept of standardized call function and we obtain a new approximating formula for the Black and Scholes call function through the hyperbolic tangent. Differently from other solutions proposed in the literature, this formula is invertible; hence, it is useful for...

Insurance, banking and financial supervision in Saudi Arabia is under the responsibility of the Central Bank of Saudi Arabia (which has the function of issuing the national currency, supervising banks, managing foreign exchange reserves, ensuring price and exchange rate stability, the soundness...

The Black and Scholes call function is widely used for pricing and hedging. In this paper we present a new global approximating formula for the Black and Scholes call function that can be useful for deriving the risk of options i.e. the implied volatility. Lastly we compare, by numerical test,...

Within bank activities, which is normally defined as the joint exercise of savings collection and credit supply risk-taking is physiological, as for a lot of human activities. Among risks related to credit inter-mediation, credit risk assumes particular importance. It is most simply defined as...

Business cycles are oscillations in the economy because of recessions and expansions. In this paper we investigate the oscillation of the gross domestic product as a result of its relations with the other main macroeconomic variables such as capital, consumption, and investment.There is a...

This paper has the objective to empirically test Harrod's explanations of economic dynamics addressing both growth and business cycles. In particular we test Harrod's speculation that opening the economy to foreign trade could lead to a reduction of cyclical instability. The main variables...

This paper, written with the intention of formulating a macroeconomic model of trade cycles - following Kaldor's approach - explains the fluctuations of economic systems by using some numerical instruments. The reason for choosing a chaotic model will become clear as will the implications which...

In this paper we introduce the concept of standardized call function and we obtain a new approximating formula for the Black and Scholes call function through the hyperbolic tangent. This formula is useful for pricing and risk management as well as for extracting the implied volatility from...