This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and … are based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation … inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by decreasing output growth and increasing inflation and …

In this paper, James investigates the evolution of the degree of the pass-through of short-term inflation forecasts to … long-term inflation forecasts by using professional forecaster survey data and finds the anchoring of inflation … expectations is stronger in many of the sample economies in recent years, especially in ones with inflation targeting in monetary …

In a parsimonious regime switching model, expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding inflation as a … expected inflation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics replicate the observed …

This paper begins by ranking the absolute value of changes in the 10-year break-even inflation (BEI) calculated using … 10-year Treasury notes and 10-year TIPS. Next, a news search is conducted to determine what inflation related information … the three competing theories of price determination: the classic monetary theory, the fiscal theory, and a “Keynesian …

Poor households report significantly higher inflation expectations than rich households. We assess, both theoretically … about aggregate inflation. Using data on shopping experiences, we show that the inflation expectations of each income group … depend on the group's past grocery experiences as well as on past aggregate inflation. To explain this finding, we build a …

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a … focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in …. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However …

We give a theoretical foundation to Friedman's conjecture that unexpected high inflation levels trigger lasting periods … strategies that are SPNE. We then show that, in every such equilibrium, the greater the deviation from expected inflation target …

We study how differences in beliefs about expected inflation affect the nominal term structure when investors have … slope of yields as well as the level of yield volatilities. Disagreement about expected inflation helps to match the … dynamics of yields and yield volatilities. Expected inflation disagreement induces a spillover effect to the real side of the …