We document the transmission of monetary policy and risk-premium shocks in Hungary, by applying recent advances in the Bayesian estimation of large VAR models. The method allows extracting information from over 100 series, opening the ""black box"" of the transmission mechanism to provide the...

This Selected Issues paper on Hungary presents an empirical analysis of the leading indicators for inflation and models the determinants of inflation. It summarizes current knowledge about the behavior of inflation and thus underpins the subsequent discussion of possible changes to the current...

The government has continued to pursue an unconventional strategy for economic recovery. Despite improved market sentiment which has eased financing constraints, the economic outlook remains difficult and large external and public financing needs leave Hungary exposed to risks. Maintaining...

Non-performing loans (NPLs) were found to respond to macroeconomic conditions, such as GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation; there are also strong feedback effects from the banking system to the real economy. This suggests that the high NPLs that many CESEE countries currently face adversely...

This paper examines the relationship between macroeconomic stabilization and market-oriented reform in planned economies. It emphasizes that market-oriented reform should enhance the likelihood that adjustment to exogenous disturbances will involve genuine adjustment in the sense of actually...

This paper presents an overview of the economy of Hungary. The paper highlights that during the Fifth Five-Year Plan (1976–80), actual growth rates for almost all major plan aggregates remained below the targets. The lower targets set for the increase in both consumption and investment in the...

The paper analyzes common issues emerging from the recent experience with Fund-supported programs in Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria and Romania. These comprise the initial price-overshooting and the output collapse, fiscal sustainability as well as the financial and structural...

This paper investigates the currency reforms undertaken subsequent to the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1918. The reforms were motivated by the lack of coordination of monetary policy and the absence of a rule for sharing seigniorage. Because the Successor States’ reforms were...

As the countries of Eastern and Central Europe transform their economies from centrally–planned to market–oriented, the question of the role that the governments should play in mobilizing savings to ensure a high growth rate must be addressed. This paper argues that the issue of a good...

This Selected Issues paper on Hungary describes the main factors behind the evolution of output in Hungary since 1990, and examines Hungary’s future growth prospects with specific focus on the role that structural and macroeconomic policies can play in enhancing those prospects. In this paper,...