"In early 2012, the Wall Street Journal published an editorial: The Heartland Tax Rebellion, which brought to national attention the movement in many Midwestern states to replace their state income tax. The opinion piece compared nine states with the highest personal income tax with nine states...

This paper reviews the existing evidence on the effects of tax reforms on output levels and growth over the short and long run from different strands of the literature. It develops and applies criteria to evaluate the usefulness of ex-post estimates to predict the effects of tax reforms ex-ante....