This paper develops an empirical model of the drivers of portfolio flows, and concludes that South Africa has indeed received greater bond flows than can be explained by macroeconomic fundamentals. Bond flows in the four quarters through 2010:Q3 not only exceeded the average over the past 10...

KEY ISSUES Context. South African citizens’ living standards have improved substantially in the first twenty years of democracy. But in recent years the economy has underperformed peers. The outlook is lackluster, with low growth, high unemployment, and elevated twin deficits. As in many...

This paper develops a methodology for estimating a safe public debt level that would allow countries to remain below a maximum sustainable debt limit, taking into account the impact of uncertainty. Our analysis implies that fiscal policy should target a debt level well below the debt ceiling to...

This Selected Issues paper estimates the potential growth rate for South Africa using different methodologies. In line with existing studies and findings for other emerging markets, the paper finds that South Africa's potential growth rate has declined in the post global financial crisis period....

South Africa has made significant progress in strengthening its macroprudential policy framework and foundations since the 2014 FSAP. Institutional arrangements were overhauled by the 2017 Financial Sector Regulations Act that, among others, introduced the current 'Twin Peaks' structure,...