A short-run macroeconomic model is estimated for Venezuela, in order to examine the hypothesis that the availability of oil resources may entail a confidence effect—on perceived future incomes—that influences the expenditure and portfolio behavior of economic agents. Such confidence effect...

This paper reviews adjustment in oil imports and domestic pricing policies affecting petroleum under Fund-supported programs. The adjustment of countries with Fund-supported programs (during 1980–82) following the two oil price shocks is compared with that of the nonprogram countries, to...

The world oil market has undergone a series of changes that have reduced the share of oil in the global energy balance and, with it, the influence of Middle Eastern oil exporters. In spite of oil’s loss of ground, however, Middle Eastern countries remain at the center of world oil...

Not unpredictably, there is a complex energy bind as we approach the end of the twentieth century. The oil importing industrial countries have anchored their industries, their means of transportation, their home comfort- in short, their whole energy-dependent lifestyle-largely to hydrocarbon fuels

Based on a simple model, the paper provides an explanation for illegal oil trade between Nigeria and its neighboring countries. The analysis focuses on the linkages between the level of smuggling and changes in the Government’s fiscal, monetary, and domestic pricing policies. It is shown that...

This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared...

Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper''s aim is to...

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

The U.S. shale revolution, using new technologies to extract crude oil, has led to new dynamics in the supply side of the global oil market. We ask whether the shale revolution has dampened the role of geopolitical risk in oil price volatility. We extend a reduced form Structural Break Threshold...