The current account deficit by the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina in recent years has fluctuated to about 20 percent of GDP. But official current account statistics suffer from several shortcomings. Possible sources of the savings required to achieve a fiscal position consistent with...

The two legs that have held up the forint in recent years—a strong “EU accession effect” and positive sentiment toward emerging markets—may no longer be strong enough to offset Hungary’s weak fundamentals. Fiscal consolidation efforts should be supported by stronger budget controls and...

Macroeconomic performance has been relatively strong, and the large fiscal adjustment and the VAT reform represent significant progress in strengthening the fiscal position. Progress with reforms sets the stage for resolving longstanding economic problems. Tax collections have grown strongly....

The Latvian economy has made remarkable strides, combining macroeconomic stability with rapid income convergence. An upfront policy tightening is needed to contain near-term overheating and secure a soft landing. Fiscal restraint is needed to counter the sizable demand stimulus already in play....

This paper discusses Bulgaria’s prospects for converging to the living standards of the more advanced members of the European Union (EU). The unfavorable economic environment of the early 1990s and the economic crisis in 1996–97 hurt Bulgaria’s output, employment, and investment. Following...

This note analyzes the medium- and long-term prospects of the hydrocarbon sector as a source of growth. Substantial hydrocarbon and financial reserves implies a sizable upward shift in the sustainable expenditure path. Rather than suggesting a specific fiscal rule, four simple alternatives are...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes economic performance of Ecuador under dollarization. The paper reviews the principal trade-offs normally associated with official dollarization, and their specific relevance to Ecuador. It discusses Ecuador’s performance under the dollarization regime,...

This paper reviews Albania’s 2004 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), Request for Extension of the Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review. The macroeconomic performance of the Albanian economy has been remarkable by both regional...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that Zimbabwe’s pace of economic deterioration slowed somewhat in 2004, but appears to have picked up again in the first half of 2005. IMF staff estimates that real GDP fell by about 4 percent in 2004, compared with a contraction of 101⁄2 percent...

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes recent trends in poverty and social indicators for Zimbabwe. It discusses land reform, agricultural policies, and the outcomes. The paper presents background information on the evolution of inflation and money aggregates in Zimbabwe....