This paper proposes a new estimator for least squares model averaging. A model average estimator is a weighted average of common estimates obtained from a set of models. We propose computing weights by minimizing a model average prediction criterion (MAPC). We prove that the MAPC estimator is...

We use available methods for testing macro models to evaluate a model of China over the period from Deng Xiaoping's reforms up until the crisis period. Bayesian ranking methods are heavily influenced by controversial priors on the degree of price/wage rigidity. When the overall models are tested...

Detecting heterogeneity within a population is crucial in many economic and financial applications. Econometrically, this requires a credible determination of multimodality in a given data distribution. We propose a straightforward yet effective technique for mode inference in discrete data...

A frequent challenge when using graphical models in applications is that the sample size is limited relative to the number of parameters to be learned. Our motivation stems from applications where one has external data, in the form of networks between variables, that provides valuable...

The combination of graphical models and reference analysis represents a powerful tool for Bayesian inference in highly multivariate settings. It is typically difficult to derive reference priors in complex problems. In this paper we present a suitable mixed parameterisation for a discrete...