Exchange rates as well as relative price level and output movements are decomposed into components associated with nominal shocks as well as shocks to aggregate supply and aggregate demand. In contrast to previous analyses of such decompositions based on statistical vector autoregression (VAR)...

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the € /US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according...

Die Berücksichtigung der zukünftigen Entwicklung des Wechselkurses ist sowohl für internationale Unternehmen als auch für international tätige Investoren unabdingbar. Allerdings ist die Erstellung von Wechsel- kursprognosen schwierig, da bis zum heutigen Zeitpunkt kein allgemein anerkanntes...

This paper brings together the literature on determination of home bias in equity holdings and the portfolio balance model of exchange rates to consider whether the dollar might be affected by a change in transactions costs that alters international portfolio allocations. The empirical findings...

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...

The next president of the United States will have to address the country's chronic budget deficits and spiraling debt. Unfortunately, neither candidate has a coherent plan Neither candidate is committed to free trade. Whereas Trump's trade policies will be conditioned by animosity toward China,...

Both candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, favor protectionism, but Trump to an extreme degree The joint protectionism is mainly directed against Chinese technology Trump favors mass deportation of immigrants, while the Democrats want orderly immigration Nobody cares much about the...

The Trump Administration enacted deficit-financed tax cuts, and the Trump campaign has proposed doubling down on that approach. The Biden-Harris Administration added less to national debt and shows more commitment to fiscal responsibility The Trump Administration consistently enacted tax...