The paper proposes a structural empirical model capable of examining exchange rate smoothing in the small, open economy of Hungary. The framework assumes the existence of an unobserved and changing implicit exchange rate target. The central bank is assumed to use interest rate policy to obtain...

A standard approach in measuring the effect of monetary policy on output and prices is to estimate a VAR model, characterise somehow the monetary policy shock and then plot impulse responses. In this paper I attempt to do this exercise with Hungarian data. I compare two identification...

We investigate the relation between the EUR/HUF exchange rate on the one hand and news announcements and order flow on the other hand using intraday data. We extend the existing literature on foreign exchange market microstructure by considering a small open transition economy. We find that the...

This paper assesses the effect of monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand. We use three different macromodels, all estimated on Hungarian data of the past 10 years. All three models indicated that after an unexpected monetary policy tightening investments decrease quickly. The...

Although in modern monetary economics it is usually assumed that inflation expectations play a prominent role when economic agents set prices and wages, the empirical evidence for this link is scarce. This paper aims to identify the effect of changes in inflation expectations on prices and wages...

Our paper aims to assess how the Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s communication affects financial asset prices. We find that the central bank plays the most important role in influencing long-term yields. The effect on the exchange rate is less pronounced, while short-term yields are influenced only by...

The main goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shocks and yield curve movements in Hungary. To this end, we apply a Nelson-Siegel type dynamic yield curve model, where changes of the yield curve are driven by two latent factors and some key macro variables that...

This paper tests whether the exchange rates of the Czech koruna, the Hungarian forint, and the Polish zloty were anchored by market expectations concerning their euro locking rates. First, the process of the exchange rate is derived as a function of the following factors: (i) latent exchange...

In this paper we analyze the bank lending channel in Hungary. We provide a brief overview of the theory and the empirical approaches used to investigate the existence of bank lending channel. From the possible methods we use the generally applied approach suggested by Kahsyap and Stein (1995)...

In this paper I address the question to what extent wages are affected by product market uncertainty. Implicit contract models imply that it is Pareto optimal for risk neutral firms to provide insurance to risk averse workers against shocks. Using matched employer-employee dataset, I adopted the...