We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance...

Contents: Introduction / Gerald Epstein -- Part I. Finance, macroeconomic policy and central banking: from Volcker to Trump -- 1. 'Domestic stagflation and monetary policy: The Federal Reserve and the hidden election' / in Thomas Ferguson and Joel Rogers (eds), the hidden election: Politics and...

Core Concepts and Practices -- Principles for the Strategic Design of Supply Chains -- Tactical Planning for Reinventing the Supply Chain -- The Role of Inventory in Superior Supply Chain Performance -- Supply Chain Performance Metrics -- Emerging Supply Chain Practices -- Sourcing Strategy and...

We use payroll data on over 1 million workers at 80,000 small firms to construct county-month measures of employment, hours, and wages that correct for dynamic changes in sample composition in response to business cycle fluctuations. We use this to estimate the response of small firms'...

This paper studies how and why inflation expectations have changed since the emergence of Covid-19. Using micro-level data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that the distribution of consumer expectations at one-year and five-ten year horizons has widened since the...