Each year the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond compiles forecasts of the economy's performance in the coming year. This year the principal forecasting problem has been the extent and duration of the petroleum embargo

This paper merges two specifications developed recently in the forecasting literature: the MS-MIDAS model introduced by Gu´erin and Marcellino [2011] and the MIDAS-factor model considered in Marcellino and Schumacher [2010]. The MS-factor MIDAS model (MS-FaMIDAS) that we introduce incorporates...

This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying...

In a variety of contexts I've been both victim and perpetrator of more bad forecasts than I care to admit. I resolved to do something about it, and find a forecast process which produced results which actually aided insight and were genuinely useful - in contrast to many forecast exercises which...

Forecasting approaches are used to predict future values of certain variables such as market demands, prices, supplies, weather temperatures, economic factors, social factors, medica related factors, population, productivity, quality, and reliability of systems. While it is almost impossible to...