The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity. For this purpose, we use a confidential firm level panel data set (Business Tendency Survey) from Turkey to form three uncertainty measures, namely total, idiosyncratic and aggregate uncertainty. In...

Bir zaman serisindeki egilimlerin saglikli bir sekilde olculebilmesi icin mevsimsel etkilerden arindirilmis olmasi buyuk onem tasimaktadir. Ancak, her yil ayni donemde tekrarlayan hareketleri temsil eden mevsimsel bilesenin ayristirilmasi tek basina yeterli degildir. Takvim gunu etkileri adi...

The aim of this paper is to construct a composite leading indicator (CLI) for Turkish economic activity that would crucially provide earlier signals of turning points between economic expansions and slowdowns. First, for this analysis, the index of industrial production is selected as an...

This study examines the asymmetric relationships between demographic characteristics of labor market variables and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Turkish economy. Both expansions and recessions are considered in a Markov Switching (MS) model, using quarterly data between 1989 and 2019....

Turkey recovered swiftly from the global financial crisis but sizeable macroeconomic imbalances arose in the process. High consumer price inflation and a wide current account deficit are sources of vulnerability. Even though below-potential growth helps rebalancing and disinflation, these...

This article aims to analyse the cyclical behaviour of fixed investments in Turkey and then construct a Composite Leading Indicators Index (CLI) to forecast the turning points of investment. The cycles of investment and selected leading indicators are identified following the growth cycle...

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye ekonomisi için oluşturulan eş zamanlı ve öncü gösterge endekslerinin, ekonomi saati yaklaşımı ile birleştirilmesi ve bu yöntemle iktisadi faaliyetin mevcut durumuna ve yakın gelecekte izleyebileceği olası seyre ilişkin bilgi çıkarılmasıdır....