This working paper explores the tension between rapidly increasing artificial intelligence investment costs and the slower pace of productivity growth, raising concerns about a potential 'economic winter' for AI. AI has shown significant technological progress, particularly with machine learning...

Production functions provide a mapping from the firms' input quantity and productivity to output quantity. This mapping only generates unbiased estimates if input and output quality variation within and between observation units is accounted for. I review and classify state-of-the-art methods to...

We propose a disaggregated representation of production using an agent-based fund-flow model that emphasizes inefficiencies, such as factor idleness and production instability, and allows us to explore their emergence through simulations. The model incorporates productivity dynamics (learning...

We study the dispersion in rates of provincial economic- and TFP growth in China. Our results show that regional growth patterns can be understood as a function of several interrelated factors, which include investment in physical capital, human capital, and infrastructure capital; the infusion...

Why do some leaders succeed while others fail? This question is important, but its complexity makes it hard to study systematically. We examine an industry in which there are well-defined objectives, small teams, and exact measures of leaders' characteristics. We show that a strong predictor of...

Using a large longitudinal, nationally representative workplace-level dataset, we explore the productivity gains associated with computer use and organizational redesign. The empirical strategy involves the estimation of a production function, augmented to account for technology use and...