This paper analyses futures prices for four energy commodities (light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas) and five agricultural commodities (corn, oats, soybean oil, soybeans and wheat), over the period 1986-2010. Using CCC and DCC multivariate GARCH models, we find that...

We define a generalized state-space model with interactive unawareness and probabilistic beliefs. Such models are desirable for many potential applications of asymmetric unawareness. We develop Bayesian games with unawareness, define equilibrium, and prove existence. We show how equilibria are...

Indexfonds sind aufgrund ihrer Terminmarktgeschäfte mit Agrarrohstoffen ins Zentrum öffentlicher Aufmerksamkeit und Kritik geraten. Hierzu kursieren in den Medien zahlreiche Falschinformationen, deren Korrektur sich durch klar identifizierbare Forschungslücken der empirischen Literatur...

Kurzfassung. Long-only-Indexfonds stehen seit geraumer Zeit unter Verdacht, für die Preisanstiege an landwirtschaftlichen Warenterminmärkten, insbesondere für Getreide, verantwortlich zu sein. Diese Arbeit untersucht anhand partieller Gleichgewichtskonzepte die langfristige Marktwirkung von...

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...

In standard auctions with symmetric, independent private value bidders resale creates a role for a speculator' a bidder who is commonly known to have no use value for the good on sale. For second-price and English auctions the efficient value-bidding equilibrium coexists with a continuum of...

The standard state-spaces of asymmetric information preclude non-trivial forms of unawareness (Modica and Rustichini, 1994, Dekel, Lipman and Rustichini, 1998). We introduce a generalized state-space model that allows for non-trivial unawareness among several individuals, and which satisfies...