This paper pursues a computationally intensive approach to generate future inflation, followed by an exploration of the determinants of inflation expectations by estimating a new Keynesian type Phillips curve that takes into account country-specific characteristics, the stance of monetary and...

This paper discusses recent trends in Indian saving behavior and reviews policy options to increase domestic saving. In the absence of forceful policy measures, private saving would continue to rise gradually, but probably not by enough to finance the government’s growth target of 7 percent...

While many have celebrated India''s accelerating economic growth, some have expressed concern about the distributional impacts of the growth process. Cognizant of the vulnerability of its large population below poverty, India''s authorities have made faster and more inclusive economic growth the...

Widespread shortages in key inputs are common in mixed economies of developing countries. These shortages appear to occur at the same time that relatively high rates of capacity underutilization in manufacturing industries are observed. This paper develops a simple model which explains the...

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic simulation model which can be used to evaluate alternative fiscal strategies and their implications for external viability. It attempts to bridge the gap between the literature on fiscal sustainability and the demands of operational work. The framework,...

A robust empirical determinant of long-term economic growth in many developing countries has been the expansion and diversification of the export sector. The latter, in turn, has been influenced by capital accumulation and economic growth. The growth model developed here explores this...

This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange market reform in developing countries. The first part reviews the recent experience of Guyana, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka with exchange market reform. The second part studies analytically the short-run...

This paper examines the growth experience of twenty states of India during the period 1961-91, using cross-sectional estimation and the analytical framework of the Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model. We find evidence of absolute convergence--initially-poor states did indeed grow faster than...

Driving infrastructure development, notably mobilizing financial resources for infrastructure projects, has been challenging in many countries. This study includes two parts: an empirical analysis of macroeconomic risks associated with infrastructure booms, and a case study of four emerging...

This paper examines whether the six largest and most active emerging stock markets are informationally efficient with respect to changes in the money supply. To investigate if stock prices fully reflect the information contained in money supply changes, two different econometric techniques are...