Is the US stock market overvalued? I use Shiller's CAPE to predict the return of investing in the S&P500 index. Siegel argues that the recent fall in the share of earnings that are paid out as dividends has biased downwards predictions from the CAPE. I offer a solution to the problem of reduced...

This paper explores the relationship between manufacturing and growth rate in recent years. We undertake a simple cross-country analysis using UN data. When controlling for variables relevant to growth, we find no significant relationship between the two variables. We argue that manufacturing...