This article extends the work of Hansen and Jagannathan by showing how to decompose approximation errors in stochastic discount factor models by frequency. This decomposition is applied to a number of consumption-based discount factor models in order to investigate how well they fit at low...

We study a Markov decision problem with unknown transition probabilities. We compute the exact Bayesian decision rule and compare it with two approximations. The first is an infinite-history, rational-expectations approximation that assumes that the decision maker knows the transition...

This paper explores various strategies for estimating rational expectations models when the trend specification is uncertain. One approach modified the likelihood function in order to reduce the influence of low-frequency dynamics. Hansen and Sargent (1993) conjectured that this would have...

This paper extends the work of Hansen and Jagannathan (1997) by showing how to decompose approximation errors in stochastic discount factor models by frequency. This decomposition is applied to a number of prominent consumption-based discount factor models top investigate how well they fit at...

A policy maker knows two models. One implies an exploitable inflation-unemployment trade-off, the other does not. The policy maker's prior probability over the two models is part of his state vector. Bayes' law converts the prior probability into a posterior probability and gives the policy...

We study prices and allocations in a complete-markets, pure-exchange economy in which there are two types of agents with different priors over infinite sequences of the aggregate endowment. Aggregate consumption growth evolves exogenously according to a two-state Markov process. The economy has...

We model transitional dynamics that emerge after the adoption of a new monetary-policy rule. We assume that private agents learn about the new policy via Bayesian updating, and we study how learning affects the nature of the transition and choice of a new rule. The model endogenously generates...