For a Markov decision problem in which unknown transition probabilities serve as hidden state variables, we study the quality of two approximations to the decision rule of a Bayesian who each period updates his subjective distribu- tion over the transition probabilities by Bayes' law. The first...

Friedman and Schwartz hypothesized that the Great Depression created ex- aggerated fears of economic instability. We quantify their idea by using a robustness calculation to shatter a representative consumer's initial confidence in the parameters of a two-state Markov chain that truly governs...

The foundation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve is a model of price setting with nominal rigidities which implies that the dynamics of inflation are well explained by the evolution of real marginal costs. The objective of this paper is to analyze whether this is a structurally-invariant...

We estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression for the U.K. with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities. We use it to characterize posterior densities for several objects that are useful for designing and evaluating monetary policy, including local approximations to the mean,...

This paper compares sample fluctuations of the US business cycle with those predicted by a class of equilibrium monetary business cycle models. The predictions of the models are generated using the long-run neutrality restrictions implicit in the models. By imposing these restrictions on sample...

We set out a Gibbs sampler for the linear instrumental-variable model withnormal errors and normal priors, and we show how to compute the marginallikelihood.

Standard estimation of ARMA models in which the AR and MA roots nearly cancel, so that individual coefficients are only weakly identified, often produces inferential ranges for individual coefficients that give a spurious appearance of accuracy. We remedy this problem with a model that mixes...

Biz, bu makalede hibeler, öncellerin (priors) ve bilgi akýþlarýnýn özdeþ kalýplarýyla ancak tam piyasalar ve tüketicilerin sadece tekil risksiz tahvillerle iþlem yapabildikleri iki farklý piyasa yapýlarý ile risk piyasa fiyatlarýný karþýlaþtýracaðýz. Makalede spekülasyon...

We estimate vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatility to investigate whether US inflation persistence has changed. We focus on the inflation gap, defined as the difference between inflation and trend inflation, and we measure persistence in terms of short- to...