In this paper, we assess the predictive content of latent economic policy uncertainty and data surprises factors for forecasting and nowcasting GDP using factor-type econometric models. Our analysis focuses on five emerging market economies, including Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and...

I investigate the dynamics of analyst forecast errors relative to economic policy uncertainty and find a significant positive relation between economic policy uncertainty and analyst forecast errors. A doubling of economic policy uncertainty is associated with a 4.29 percentage points increase...

The “Macroeconomic Monitoring and Forecasting” (MM&F) research study provides an exhaustive analysis of the current state of the economy; near-term challenges and prospects of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) member economies. The CAREC Institute launched the MMF study...

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the volatility of European Union (EU) carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices. The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU...

The German economy will grow by 2.4 percent this year, especially due to strong foreign demand. Brisk investment activity continues in this economic climate; stimulus from foreign trade, however, is weakening somewhat. Despite strong consumer demand in the coming quarters, employment and economic...