In an economy studied by Lucas and Stokey, tax rates inherit the serial correlation structure of government expenditures, belying Barro's earlier result that taxes should be a random walk for any stochastic process of government expenditures. To recover a version of Barro's random walk...

The dynamics of a linear (or linearized) dynamic stochastic economic model can be expressed in terms of matrices (A, B, C, D) that define a state space system for a vector of observables. An associated state space system (A,ˆB,C,ˆD) determines a vector autoregression for those same...

Simon’s and Theil’s certainty equivalence property justifies a convenient algorithm for solving dynamic programming problems with quadratic objectives and linear transition laws: first, optimize under perfect foresight, then substitute optimal forecasts for unknown future values. A similar...

Western Europe was plagued with currency shortages from the 14th to the 19th century, at which time a `standard formula' had been devised to cure the problem. We document the evolution of mon- etary theory, policy experiments and minting tech- nology over the course of six hundred years. In a...

This paper constructs a model with two structural equations: the Government budget constraint and a linear version of Cagan’s portfolio balance equation. The model contains a continuum of equilibria with “sunspot equilibria.” Closed forms for the solutions are found. Even though there is a...