The continuing weakness of activity in the euro area reflects an amalgam of cyclical and long-term forces that are likely to shape the outlook and to challenge policies. Financial conditions in the area have improved along with those in global markets, though financial fragilities may be...

Europe is facing slower growth as a result of protracted financial turbulence and spillovers from the U.S. Meanwhile, inflation has risen sharply. Policymakers in advanced economies will have to continue to support financial markets and balance risks to real activity with the need to anchor...

The staff report on Euro Area Policies highlights cyclical growth developments and risks. The area’s real GDP growth has picked up, responding to strong foreign demand and relaxed financial conditions. The final domestic demand growth remains subdued, and the area lags global growth by a large...

This Selected Issues paper discusses the effectiveness of monetary policy in the euro area in the context of the financial crisis, the need for special resolution regimes for financial institutions in the European Union (EU), and the proposed new EU financial stability arrangements. The paper...

This report describes the monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area and the euro area stability programs. The Stability and Growth Pact presents annual stability programs (SPs), which outlines the medium-term fiscal objectives. The paper provides a preliminary review of the SPs,...

The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors resulting from forecasting of exogenous variables. Also,...

Global excess liquidity is sometimes believed to limit sovereign monetary policy even in large economies, including the euro area. There is much discussion about what constitutes global excess liquidity and our approach adjusts liquidity for longer-term interest rate and output effects. We find...

The global financial crisis has highlighted the importance of early identification of weak banks: when problems are identified late, solutions are much more costly. Until recently, Europe has seen only a small number of outright bank failures, which made the estimation of early warning models...

The EU is deliberating the introduction of an explicit ""European mandate"" for financial sector supervisors to supplement national mandates. Suggestions are made on (i) the formulation of a European mandate; (ii) the policy areas to which it should apply; (iii) which institutions should be given...

The paper discusses the purpose, properties, and theoretical foundations of various indicators of inflation and also describes the forecasting methodology and performance of these indicators. It reviews the successful European labor market reform experiences and analyzes regulatory and...