We propose marginal integration estimation and testing methods for the coefficients of varying coefficient multivariate regression model. Asymptotic distribution theory is developed for the estimation method which enjoys the same rate of convergence as univariate function estimation. For the...

Predicting default probabilities is important for firms and banks to operate successfully and to estimate their specific risks. There are many reasons to use nonlinear techniques for predicting bankruptcy from financial ratios. Here we propose the so called Support Vector Machine (SVM) to...

Students of introductory courses consider statistics as particularly difficult, as the understanding of the underlying concepts may require more time and energy than for other disciplines. For decades statisticians have tried to enhance understanding with the help of technical solutions such as...

Weather influences our daily lives and choices and has an enormous impact on corporate revenues and earnings. Weather derivatives dier from most derivatives in that the underlying weather cannot be traded and their market is relatively illiquid. The weather derivative market is therefore...

The implied volatility became one of the key issues in modern quantitative finance, since the plain vanilla option prices contain vital information for pricing and hedging of exotic and illiquid options. European plain vanilla options are nowadays widely traded, which results in a great amount...

This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the linear and nonlinear time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient parametric models, such as AR or GARCH, whose coefficients...

In this paper we provide a review of copula theory with applications to finance. We illustrate the idea on the bivariate framework and discuss the simple, elliptical and Archimedean classes of copulae. Since the cop- ulae model the dependency structure between random variables, next we explain...

Empirical studies have shown that a large number of financial asset returns exhibit fat tails and are often characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. Also revealed as a stylized fact is Long memory or long range dependence in market volatility, with significant impact on pricing and...

This paper proposes a nonparametric test of causality in quantile. Zheng (1998) has proposed an idea to reduce the problem of testing a quantile restriction to a problem of testing a particular type of mean restriction in independent data. We extend Zheng’s approach to the case of dependent...

A primary goal in modelling the implied volatility surface (IVS) for pricing and hedging aims at reducing complexity. For this purpose one fits the IVS each day and applies a principal component analysis using a functional norm. This approach, however, neglects the degenerated string structure...