Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector...

The obsolete capital stock in eastern Germany has to be rebuilt. This will increase the capital demand in Germany for the next few years. In addition to the increased demand for capital, government transfers need to be financed. The macroeconomic accounting identity requires that net savings of...

The terms and conditions on which bank loans are made to non-financial firms and households play a key role in the transmission of monetary policy. This paper analyses the relationship between German bank lending rates and both money market and capital market rates in the 1990s. This study...

A distinguishing feature of the ECB's monetary policy setup is the preannouncement of a minimum bid rate in its weekly repo auctions. However, whenever interest rates are expected to decline, the minimum bid rate is viewed as too high and banks refrain from bidding, severely impeding the ECB's...

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between stock returns and short-term interest rates. Identification of the stock return-interest rate relation is solved by using a new technique that relies on the heteroskedasticity of shocks to stock market returns. We suggest some improvements...

This paper studies a nonlinear one-factor term structure model in discrete time. The single factor is the short-term interest rate, which is modeled as a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) process. Our specification allows for shifts in the intercept and the variance. The process is...

We study differences in the price paid for liquidity across banks using price data at the individual bank level. Unique to this paper, we also have data on individual banks' reserve requirements and actual reserve holdings, thus allowing us to gauge the extent to which a bank is short or long...

In the last few years it has been possible to observe decreasing interest margins for German universal banks. At the same time, institutions increasingly moved part of their business from interest to fee-earning activities. This study analyzes the determinants of non-interest income and its...

In Folge der starken Rezession kommt es durch diskretionäre Maßnahmen der Bundesregierung und die Auswirkung der automatischen Stabilisatoren zu einem erheblichen Anstieg des Staatsdefizits. Im Ergebnis wird das Niveau der öffentlichen Verschuldung bei Rückkehr zur wirtschaftlichen...