This paper is concerned with ex ante and ex post counterfactual analyses in the case of macroeconometric applications where a single unit is observed before and after a given policy intervention. It distinguishes between cases where the policy change affects the model's parameters and where it...

[Note:] This paper is an adapted version of the substantive part of the Final Report to the European Commission of the project 'Improving the Capacity and Usability of EUROMOD (I-CUE)', Research Infrastructures Design Study 011859.

We extend the method of indirect inference testing to data that is not filtered and so may be non-stationary. We apply the method to an open economy real business cycle model on UK data. We review the method using a Monte Carlo experiment and find that it performs accurately and has good power.