We consider a Bayesian Model Averaging approach for the purpose of forecasting Swedish consumer price index inflation using a large set of potential indicators, comprising some 80 quarterly time series covering a wide spectrum of Swedish economic activity. The paper demonstrates how to...

Using the method of Caballero and Lyons (1990, 1992), I examine detailed Swedish manufacturing firm-level data on output and factor inputs from 1979 through 1994. Panel regressions show that an increase in aggregate output and inputs appears to raise individual firms production beyond private...

This paper examines the relationship between financial instability and monetary policy within the Swedish economy. Based on a standard VAR model of monetary policy extended to include measures of financial instability and credit expansions, we examine the interaction between monetary policy and...

The use of explicit inflation targets has meant that monetary policy has become more transparent and also easier to evaluate. The analysis in this paper is based on forecasts by Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden) on real output and inflation. Our purpose is to separate the effects on...

A complete procedure for calculating the joint predictive distribution of future observations based on the cointegrated vector autoregression is presented. The large degree of uncertainty in the choise of the cointegration vectors is incorporated into the analysis through a prior distribution on...

Viewed over the whole available history of fiat money in Sweden, high levels of inflation have been present only over a short time span. It is only in the last two decades - the seventies and the eighties - that inflation has been high, at an average of eight percent on an annual basis. Based on...

The Swedish export price determination for automobiles and kraft paper to three destination countries, over the period 1980-1994, is investigated. Formal tests on an error correction model indicate results consistent with price discrimination in Swedish exports of both goods. The exporters use...

Structural VARs have been extensively used in empirical macroeconomics during the last two decades, particularly in analyses of monetary policy. Existing Bayesian procedures for structural VARs are at best confined to a severly limited handling of cointegration restrictions. This paper extends...

This paper considers the evidence of near-rationality, as described by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (2000). Using detailed surveys of household inflation expectations for the United States and Sweden, we find that the data are generally unsupportive of the near-rationality hypothesis. However, we...