To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...

This paper puts forward kernel ridge regression as an approach for forecasting with many predictors that are related nonlinearly to the target variable. In kernel ridge regression, the observed predictor variables are mapped nonlinearly into a high-dimensional space, where estimation of the...

This paper examines the effects of different corporate governance mechanisms on the cost of debt for large European firms and documents a novel interaction effect between shareholder rights and disclosure. Improved disclosure leads to a lower credit spread only if shareholder rights are low. A...

The daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual hours. This...

This paper develops a testing framework for comparing the predictive accuracy of copula-based multivariate density forecasts, focusing on a specific part of the joint distribution. The test is framed in the context of the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, but using (out-of-sample)...

We propose a novel approach to active risk management based on the recent Basel II regulations to obtain optimal portfolios with minimum capital requirements. In order to avoid regulatory penalties due to an excessive number of Value-at-Risk (VaR) violations, capital requirements are minimized...

We study the impact of FOMC announcements of Federal funds target rate decisions on individual stock prices at the intraday level. We find that the returns, volatilities and correlations of the Samp;P100 index constituents only respond to the surprise component in the announcement, as measured...

Over the last decade, the going private market has experienced a considerable boom in size and also has become more interesting for private equity investors that are looking to partner with incumbent management. This offers managers the choice to take the firm private themselves in a traditional...