The dynamic factor Markov-switching (DFMS) model introduced by Chauvet (1998) has proven to be a powerful framework to measure the business cycle. We extend the DFMS model by allowing for time-varying transition probabilities, with the aim of accelerating the real-time dating of turning points...

We investigate the effect of estimation error on backtests of (multi-period) expected shortfall (ES) forecasts. These backtests are based on first order conditions of a recently introduced family of jointly consistent loss functions for Value-at-Risk (VaR) and ES. We provide explicit expressions...

Dating business cycle turning points / Marcelle Chauvet, James D. Hamilton -- A new framework to analyze business cycle synchronization / Jeffrey A. Modisett, Judge David J. Dreyer -- Non-linearity and instability in the Euro area / Massimiliano Marcellino -- Nonlinear modelling of...