We derive the theoretical relation between the term structure of implied variance and the expected excess returns of the underlying asset. Adopting three alternative approaches to compile the variables representing the information on the implied volatility index level and term structure, we show...

This paper reviews a simple three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff and reports results obtained from fitting this model to U.S. Treasury yields since 1990. The model ascribes a large portion of the decline in long-term yields and distant-horizon...