This paper studies the Mexican and Israeli experience with a target zone. The first part of the paper develops a model of exchange rate determination under a target zone regime with stochastic realignments, and examines the conditions under which the adoption of the target zone, instead of a...

This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as:...

This paper studies the behavior of interest rate differentials in Mexico during the 1992-94 period. It shows that the currency risk premia is positively related to the share of peso denominated debt in total debt and that the magnitude of this effect is considerable. For every 1 percentage point...

This paper studies the role of central bank communication of its economic assessment in shaping inflation dynamics. Imperfect information about the central bank''s assessment - or the basis for monetary policy decisions - could complicate the private sector''s learning about its policy response...

This paper examines the links between capital inflows and the real exchange rate under pegged exchange rates. The analytical framework is described, and a near-VAR model linking capital inflows, interest rate differentials, government spending, money base velocity, and the temporary component of...

This paper examines the behavior of private sector credit in chronic inflation countries that undergo exchange rate-based inflation stabilizations. It concludes that these programs are characterized by a strong increase in private sector credit, both in absolute terms and as a fraction of real...

Mexico’s growth process in trend and cyclical factors, with implications for policy decisions, is discussed. Mexico’s trade integration has been important for growth. But the high export growth experienced has been followed by a more muted performance. Reforms to improve productivity are...

Strong fundamentals and a policy track record helped Mexico to withstand the fallout from the global crisis and aided recovery. The policy challenges have to take due account of significant global uncertainty, employment generation, and long-term fiscal reforms. The economy will benefit from...

This paper examines the pattern of dollarization in Latin America, focusing on the experience of five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay) during 1970-1993. It presents evidence on the relative size of dollarization, the allocation of foreign currency deposits, and the...

This paper examines whether the six largest and most active emerging stock markets are informationally efficient with respect to changes in the money supply. To investigate if stock prices fully reflect the information contained in money supply changes, two different econometric techniques are...