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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014855637
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This paper brings together identification and forecasting in a positive econometric analysis of policy. We contend that a broad range of important policy questions is consistent with the existing policy process and is not subject to Lucas's critique. We analyze the economics of "business as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721725
policies designed to avoid the liquidity trap outcome. One is to link government's spending to the inflation rate. Subject to … the intertemporal budget constraint, the government's taxation on the private sector decreases as the inflation rate drops …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721726
This paper develops recursive methods that completely characterize all the time-consistent equilibria of a class of models with long-lived agents. This class is large enough to encompass many problems of interest, such as capital-labor taxation and optimal monetary policy. The recursive methods...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721732
Central banks pay close attention to inflation expectations. In standard models, however, inflation expectations are … paper, the authors relax the assumption of rational expectations with perfect knowledge and reexamine the role of inflation … learning, disturbances can give rise to endogenous inflation scares, that is, significant and persistent deviations of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721745
The yield curve is shaped by (1) expectations of the future path of short-term interest rates and (2) uncertainty about the path. Uncertainty affects the yield curve through two channels: (1) investors’ attitudes toward risk as reflected in risk premia, and (2) the nonlinear relation between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721747
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721757
Until recently, the trend in world capital markets has been toward increasing “globalization.” Recent events in Latin America and Asia have forced a rethinking of the desirability of unrestricted world capital flows. In this paper we ask whether simple restrictions on capital mobility can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721759
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams' excellent conference paper, "Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721760