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Implied correlation and variance risk premium stand out in predicting market returns. However, while the predictive … ability of implied correlation lasts for up to a year, the variance risk premium predicts market returns only for one quarter … ahead. Contrary to the accepted view, implied correlation predicts the market return not through a diversification risk …
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We propose a model to forecast very large realized covariance matrices of returns, applying it to the constituents of the S&P 500 on a daily basis. To address the curse of dimensionality, we decompose the return covariance matrix using standard firm-level factors (e.g., size, value and...
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We examine low-turnover zero-investment "factor" portfolios constructed from various stock characteristics previously shown to predict returns. The nine different factor portfolios all exhibit negative market betas. Our central result is that a more negative beta across factors predicts higher...
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