To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is twice as likely to lose office in the 6 months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless whether the devaluation takes place in the context...

In 2005, China abated its fixed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and began to appreciate the Renminbi (RMB). In this paper, I explore the effect of the appreciation of the RMB on imports to the U.S. from China by augmenting the gravity model with the exchange rate. Using an industrial panel...

This paper extends the model developed by Krugman and Taylor (1978) to take into account interesting features of the evolving structure of global trade. The growing presence of transnational production chains and differential pricing behaviour of exports destined for industrial and developing...

In this paper we analyze statistics derived from the cross-wavelet transform of inflation differentials and exchange rate changes for a group of countries with Germany as the reference country. An important tool is the wavelet coherency measure from which we can judge the strength of the...

The removal of the lower bound on the EUR/CHF exchange rate in January 2015 provides a unique setting to study the implications of a large and sudden appreciation in an otherwise stable macroeconomic environment. Using transaction-level data on non-durable goods purchases by Swiss consumers, we...